Well, that’s Q2 off to a flying start with Trump trashing the whole world economy. How can it be that one person can have so much of an effect on the World? He’s put Liz Truss to shame. All my gains from 2024 wiped out in a week.

Still, if you can’t stand a 10% (or more) swing / drop in valuations you shouldn’t really be in this game. Apart from the trade, below, I’m not rushing to sell. Au contraire. I’d made a few sales to crystallise some losses that I can offset against realised gains and to free up cash to transfer to my ISA in the new Tax Year. That has now been done (7 April) and I’m sitting on about 10% cash.

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29th May

Sorry it’s been radio Silence for a while, but the truth is that with all the volatility from the man-child, across the pond, the easiest approach was to sit on my hands and get a life, rather than time the Market. No spare cash to invest without selling anything was also a factor. I’ve got a bit of cash building up, but not enough in the pot until today.

I’ve spent the day to review my Portfolio. Whilst I do try to not trade too much, I’m not necessarily a ‘buy and hold forever’ person either. There are a couple of duffers in there that I’m ignoring for now (looking at you CLI, FDM, IOM, SFOR, RWS where I’m happy to wait for a decision). On the other hand, I have traded Easyjet very successfully over the years. I’ve averaged a 15% Annualised return overall. Today I sold my current holdings. Never say Never Again, though as if it trends back down to £5 or so I’ll look at buying back in again. Telecom Plus is also looking a bit toppy for its income and margins, so time for that to go, too.

What to buy? I revisited both my Stockopedia Stock Screens (one is low PER, the other are share prices within 20% of their yearly low) as well as my watchlist. A lot of stocks have rallied over the last month or two, which is good, but means they haven’t hit my triggers. Some have though.

EZJ – easyjet – Sell

See notes, above. I find it really difficult to work out a fair value for this and it doesn’t take much – an oil price surge, Putin to ramp up attacks for it to all go horribly wrong. Better value out there, where i can comfortably sleep at night. For now…

Sell price: 571p
Buy price: 363p (average)
Dividend income: 5% (non-weighted average)

Gain: 64% total (33% pa).

TEP – Telecom Plus– Sell

This is an interesting Business. It trades as Utility Warehouse and is Marketed by(presumably) hundreds of self-employed people. I see many of these at the Networking meetings I go to. Good Business model as they all live or die by the sales they bring in, but I don’t see it as particularly profitable looking at the Accounts. Like EZJ I’ve traded in and out a couple of times.

Sell price: 2012p
Buy price: 1545p
Dividend income: 11% (non-weighted average)

Gain: 40% total (20% pa).

SQZ – Serica Energy – Buy

Drilling for oil in the North sea. The incumbent Government seem to think it better to import oil from abroad and stop us drilling for our own as part of its Green obsession. we need oil still, so whilst that is the case, surely it’s better for UK Businesses to employ UK staff and pay UK taxes to drill for UK oil, than pay a foreign Country to import it (therefore adversely affecting our Balance of Payments and incurring non-green transport costs at the same time). What am I missing. Anyway, Serica is profitable with a decent Dividend. It has an issue with a particular field, not of its doing and once that is fixed, oil should gush, and hopefully the valuation with it. I’m in.

Buy @ 152p with a d/y of 13% and PER of 4.8. Book value about 30% over current price.
Portfolio %: 2.7%
Total Portfolio Holdings: 2.7%

EMG – MAN Group – Buy

“Man Group plc is a United Kingdom-based technology-empowered active investment management company. The Company is focused on delivering performance and client portfolio solutions by deploying the latest technology across its business.” (from its website via Stockopedia). Decent performer, just fell on hard times after the recent Trump fire of the vanities.

Buy @ 176p with a d/y of 7.7% and PER of 9.5. Book value about 10% under current price.
Portfolio %: 2.6%
Total Portfolio Holdings: 2.6%

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9th April

I looked at BYG for a top up yesterday. In the end decided on the ones mentioned, below but after today’s drop I’ve put another half a unit into BYG. I still think this and SAFE are fundamentally undervalued, both on Net Tangible Asset valuations and also share price performance. If Businesses close down temporarily a la COVID we may see an in crease in storage requirements.

BYG – Big Yellow – top up

Buy @ 850p with a d/y of 5.4% covered 4(!) times and a PER of 14.8. Book value of nearly 1300p
Portfolio %: 1.4%
Total Portfolio Holdings: 6.5%

8th April

Time to dip my toe back in again

SAFE – Safestore – top up

I still think this is valued at about 50% of its actual property holdings. Deduct debt and still a massive margin for safety and at a 6 year low despite profit tripling and asset values more than doubling.

Buy @ 547p with a d/y of 6% and PER of 12. Book value of over 1,000p
Portfolio %: 2.6%
Total Portfolio Holdings: 7.3%

CRST – Crest Nicholson – top up

This is a 10% drop top-up. No rhyme nor reason for the purchase, except that one day another Housebuilder is going to take a pop at it.

Buy @ 149p with a d/y of 3% and PER of 13. Book value of over 280p
Portfolio %: 1.3%
Total Portfolio Holdings: 3.2%

BP. – BP. – top up

Dropped on lower oil price scares. Good solid yielder. Happy to hold for the income. It’s also dropped its green ambitions, which were probably lip service. Given the size of its non-green operations & what it actually does for a living, it was a bit futile really.

Buy @ 355p with a d/y of 7.4% and PER of 7.8. Book value a shade over current price.
Portfolio %: 1.4%
Total Portfolio Holdings: 2.6%

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7th April

RWA- Robert Walters – Sell

Trump has trashed the World Economic Market with his Tarriffs. Whilst I’m not unduly panicking and selling, to quote Warren Buffett, when the tide goes out, you can see who are swimming without trunks. Recruitment has had a torrid time and before the Trump shenanigans RWA was downbeat. Recruitment will be in te doldrums for a looong while, so I have decided to cut my losses.

Sell price: 225p
Buy price: 360p (average)
Dividend income: 2% (non-weighted average)

Loss: 37% total ((39%) + 2% divs) (58%) pa.

General commentary

11th February

22nd January. easyjet posted another improved set of results and Mr Market did his usual irrational thing and marked them down. I sold a small tranche last Quarter to shuffle things around. It went into freefall after, so have just bought back in again.

16th January. What a difference a day makes. Yesterday was my best day this year with the announcement of lower than expected UK inflation figures & soft US CPI figures driving a strong Dow & a Gaza ceasefire announcement. Wind forwards 24 hours and a lot of the good work was undone. Whilst there is no point trying to time the market too closely, if you are looking to buy (or sell) it’s good to catch Mr Market in a depressed (or ecstatic) mood. I still want to drive more funds to Safestore (SAFE), but yesterday wasn’t the day. In addition, Housebuilders have been in the doldrums, I’ve been running some rough calculations. TW. came up trumps as best value (IMO). Again, yesterday wasn’t the day though.

Today was the day. I’ve doubled my Safestore holdings and also Taylor Wimpey (TW.) (which was a half New unit before, making it up to a full unit now). Now sitting on 8% cash.

10th January. It’s still looking quite dodgy. Bond yields are rising here, which means the Government’s interest costs are rising. Less headroom to play with tax cuts and higher expenditure to come. Who knows which way an emboldened Trump will jump once he is elected. The aftermath from the tragic fires in Los Angeles are also going to create a large, possibly inflationary, Budget hole, directly with the Government well as higher insurance costs.

I’ve sold down a couple of my elephants today – IMB and BATS. I’m not negative on them at all, but IMB in particular has had a great run and may retrench, allowing me to buy back in at a lower level. If not, then I’m sure that I can recycle the funds into unloved shares. Really want to buy more BYG and SAFE, but – for the moment – I’m sticking to my “buy in after a 10% drop” rule. Rules are made to be broken, however.

I’ve also sold a smaller one, Brickability (BRCK) for a modest profit. If there is a Housing Downturn, then this will get hit. Recent update talked about a ‘soft Market’ back last Autumn. Really don’t think it has improved since.

8th January. Bit of a tense start to the New Year with Trump threatening takeovers of Greenland, Canada and the Panama Canal. In the UK, Labour’s Honeymoon is definitely over, Borrowing costs are rising and interest rates don’t look like they are coming down as rapidly as previously thought.

Whilst 2024 was good to me I do think I’ve spread my net a bit too wide. I have bought a few dubious shares as I don’t want to invest too much per share. My Portfolio has benefited from a large cash injection and I need to develop a higher base level to invest. Mentally this is proving challenging.

In addition, to mix my metaphors, Elephants don’t gallop. In other words I have some large caps that have come back from recent lows, but are unlikely to make as many gains as previous, nor to they have a compelling Dividend return case that would outweigh any Capital falls.

Here’s my Plan for 2025.

• Sell down my tail end stocks – my least favourable ones. I will time the sales with Mr Market’s cheery bouts, however. Not rushing to sell.
• Double my entry point for purchases, so I can hold fewer
• Q1 be a bit more cautious & be happy to hold a bit more cash. Opportunities will come along, they always do.
• Still stick to my 10% drop top-up schedule assuming it’s not for a tangible reason.
• Stick to my sector rotations. I went into Housebuilders a couple of years back. Have done well, although the last month or so has not been impressive. I also bet on Tobacco and Banks. My current out of favour sector is self-store. This has served me well in the past with Lok and Store, and now Safestore and Big Yellow seem very underpriced compared to their Tangible value.

Transactions (on the basis that I’ve doubled my ‘base unit’).

26th March

EVOK – EVOKE – Sell

Trading update today and it wasn’t pretty. This may well be a turnaround share, but it’s weighed down by a lot of debt. I’ve also got quite a few gains in my p/f so this sell crystallises a loss to offset those gains ready to Bed and ISA 6th April. Mitigates my Tax bill a tad. Oh well, take it on the chin. I’ll probably seek something else out once the money is in the ISA.

Sell price: 59p
Buy price: 77p (average)
Dividend income: 0% (non-weighted average)

Loss: 25% total ((25%) + 0% divs) (25%) pa (as I held for pretty much 1 year).

19th February

CRE – Conduit Holdings

Insurer, about 3 years old and growing fast. Been impacted by a couple of storms and the LA wildfires, which isn’t good but (whilst extreme) this comes with the territory. Premiums should harden and I would presume that that area of LA will be rebuilt in a way that it is more impervious to a similar catastrophe. in the meantime, one to tuck away for a solid 7% yield, PE of 4.3 and PEG of 0.1 – what’s not to like?

Buy @ 403p with a d/y of 7.5% and PER of 4.3. Book value of over 600p with half the Market cap in cash.
Portfolio %: 2.6%
Total Portfolio Holdings: 2.6%

Leaves me with about 5% cash, so not much purchasing power for now. In addition, some of that is being held back to plonk into my ISA April 6th (currently in a regular Trading Account, so taxable).

17th February

TATE – Top Up

Normally I wouldn’t top up until it’s dropped at least 10%, however the recent drop after a subdued Trading Update brings it back to my Buy Price, but with a half-unit since I have doubled my Unit purchase size. On that basis and I still have confidence in it, with a pinch of takeover rumours I’ve doubled up to get to my current ‘Unit’ size.

See above reasoning in commentary for today.

Buy @ 572p with a d/y of 3.6% (meh)and PER of 10 (So so).
Portfolio %: 1.3%
Total Portfolio Holdings: 2.6%

11th February

OSB – OSB – Sell

A big part of its Portfolio is Buy to Let and the private landlords are taking a bath right now. Many are selling up. Not sure if that is reflected in the share price (even though they may make up a small part of it) so am selling out anyway.

Sell price: 424p
Buy price: 376p
Dividend income: 0% (non-weighted average)

Gain: 13% total (13% + 0% divs) 24% pa (not compounded) equivalent

22nd January

EZJ – easyJet – Top Up

See above reasoning in commentary for today.

Buy @ 493p with a d/y of3% and PER of 7.
Portfolio %: 1.4%
Total Portfolio Holdings: 8.3%

16th January

TW. – Taylor Wimpey – Top Up

See above reasoning in commentary for today.

Buy @ 109p with a d/y of 8.4% and PER of 11.4. Net Assets of 125p per share, so a bit of a margin of safety there
Portfolio %: 1.4%
Total Portfolio Holdings: 2.6%

SAFE – Safestore – Top Up

See above reasoning in commentary for today.

Buy @ 615p with a d/y of 4.7% and PER of 15.4. Net Assets of 934p per share, so a decent margin of safety there
Portfolio %: 2.9%
Total Portfolio Holdings: 5.8%

13th January

BYG – Big Yellow Group – Top Up

I knew I wouldn’t be able to resist. Bought another Unit. Still can’t see why it’s rated so lowly. Still well over 10% cash, so more firepower available.

Buy @ 883p with a d/y of 5.3% and PER of 15.1. Net Assets of 1300p per share, so a decent margin of safety there
Portfolio %: 2.7%
Total Portfolio Holdings: 5.3%

10th January

BATS – Brit. American Tobacco – Sell

Elephant sale. No real negative, just want to increase my fire power if there is a downturn.

Sell price: 2965p
Buy price: 2630p (ave)
Dividend income: 12% (non-weighted average)

Gain: 24% total (14% + 12%) 32% pa (not compounded) equivalent

IMB – Imperial Tobacco – Sell

Who says elephants can’t gallop (Rudyard Kipling, then adapted by Jim Slater as it happens). IMB has had a stonking run and must be due a retrenchment if there is a downturn and/or Trump comes down on Tobacco Companies as a fundraiser. After a 50% climb I’ve been mulling a sale for a while and pushed the button today. Gutted as it has a low PER and high (and sustainable) D/Y. I just think that I can buy it back cheaper and/or use the funds to buy into something else not in a (no pun intended) dying industry.

Sell price: 2598p (ave)
Buy price: 1785p (ave)
Dividend income: 9% (non-weighted average)

Gain: 54% total (46% + 9%) 53% pa (not compounded) equivalent

BRCK – Brickability – Sell

Wary of a Housing downturn, so this is another sale of a slightly dubious purchase. We need bricks, but if Housing drops, this will drop – and it was already warning of a ‘soft’ Market at its last Report. It was optimistic of a Housing Boost from the incoming Labour Government, but this is turning into smoke and mirrors with Housebuilders very unlikely to hit targets.

Sell price: 59p (ave)
Buy price: 54.5p (ave)
Dividend income: 10% (non-weighted average)

Gain: 17% total (8% + 10%) 12% pa (not compounded) equivalent

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8th January

HEAD – Headlam – Sell

One of my riskier purchases. On the face of it, undervalued as it has lot of unlocked property value. On the other hand, will be vulnerable to a housing downturn. Price ticked up after a recent property sale, then stabilised so a good opportunity to get out.

Sell price: 141.5p
Buy price: 130.6p
Dividend income: 0% (non-weighted average)

Gain: 7% total (7% + 0%) 31% pa (not compounded) equivalent

RWS – RWS Holdings – part Sell

Seems a decent Business, but it fell in price after I bought it. This is a sale of the subsequent top-up to crystallise the gains. Nothing negative against it and if it drops again I’ll rinse and repeat. Selling ahead of x/d next week.

Sell price: 178.7p
Buy price: 131.4p
Dividend income: 0% (non-weighted average)

Gain: 35% total (35% + 0%) 178% pa (not compounded) equivalent

NWG – NatWest Group – Sell

Elephants don’t gallop. I had a bit of angst about this. It is still a good Business, and I bought in when Mr Market had a bad reaction to some quite reasonable results. Since then both tranches have hit a 100%+ Gain and I just feel that I can’t see it making any decent returns from this valuation & can deploy the cash more effectively. I’ve set a buy-in price in case it all goes horribly wrong again.

Sell price: 403p
Buy price: 192p (average or two tranches)
Dividend income: 9% (non-weighted average)

Gain: 117% total (111% + 9%) 97% pa (not compounded) equivalent

BYG – Big Yellow Group – BUY

As mentioned, above, the self-storage Market overall seems to be undervalued. Valuations rose 2021/2022 post Covid as Business and individuals reined in spending and had to mothball stuff (although self-storage is not a cheap option, often costing more than what is stored). Anyway, since 2020 it’s all been on a downward slope and as far as I can see, at the moment, once you subtract net debt, the Businesses are undervalued by about 30-40% on NTAV alone, never mind income. I can’t see any reason for this and feel it will revert to the Mean, or be snapped up. Self-storage is a bigger thing in the US for instance and Businesses there might be looking to expand into the UK, especially if the £ keeps falling. Back to reality and I’ve already invested in Safestore, so bough a Unit (new double size unit) of Big Yellow today. Will be happy to top up either if they drop by another 10%.

Buy @ 899p with a d/y of 5.1% and PER of 15.6. Net Assets of 1300p per share, so a decent margin of safety there
Portfolio %: 2.7%
Total Portfolio Holdings: 2.7%

As you can see, the doubling of the Base Unit means new Purchases are approaching a 3% holding each time.

Currently that still leaves me 6% in cash, which is as high as it’s been for a while.

Watchlist snippets after today’s tidy up: PETS, ABDN, VSVS, WPP – and NWG if it drops back a decent amount. None are screaming ‘buy’, so am watching & waiting….

Dithering: IMB has climbed so much, but is still at a stonkingly good price.

Not sure: DOM has done me well in the past, despite never being particularly cheap on metrics. Getting relatively cheap again, so could buy for the cycle….

Fantasy: PIER – Brighton Pier Group. Heart, not head here. Wouldn’t it be fun to own a bit of Brighton Pier? At the rate it’s valuation is going, I could own a decent size.

This Blog must in no way be construed as investment advice. I’m not an Advisor, I’m just a Private Investor that takes an interest in Stocks and Shares as a way of increasing my standard of Living & having a bit of fun. Feel free to comment. All comments are Moderated before publication, keep them relevant, short and interesting otherwise they won’t be published. My Blog, my Rules.

Nothing written here can be construed as advice in any way, shape or form. It is just my (sometimes wrong) opinion.

Don’t make me responsible for any decisions that you make off the back of anything I write here. Do Your Own Research. Capice?